AS Puma Generalena 1–0 AD Cofutpa: Result & Stats

AS Puma Generalena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AD Cofutpa

3/18/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 14Estadio Municipal de Parrita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena42%

×Draw26%

AD Cofutpa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Puma GeneralenaExpected goals in this matchAD Cofutpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.25

AS Puma Generalena

1.45

AD Cofutpa

1.25

AS Puma Generalena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 121 away

1.28

creates per match

1.14

1.36

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.28

AD Cofutpa

1.14

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.36

AD Cofutpa

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

AD Cofutpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw

67%

AS Puma Generalena or AD Cofutpa

74%

Draw or AD Cofutpa

58%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

20%

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

77%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

42%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

18%

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals

71%

AD Cofutpa 2+ goals

36%

AD Cofutpa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

56%

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

AD Cofutpa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

AD Cofutpa attack 1.14 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more

42%

level

26%

AD Cofutpa scores more

33%

AS Puma Generalena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Puma Generalena vs AD Cofutpa

AS Puma Generalena beat AD Cofutpa 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Parrita in Parrita.

AS Puma Generalena vs AD Cofutpa — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: AS Puma Generalena vs AD Cofutpa