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AD Cofutpa vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
10/8/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AD Cofutpa52%
×Draw23%
AS Puma Generalena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.86
AS Puma Generalena
1.21

AD Cofutpa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 74 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.80
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.49
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
75%
AD Cofutpa or AS Puma Generalena
77%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
48%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
30%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
84%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
55%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
28%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
70%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
34%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
68%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.80 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
52%
level
23%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
25%

AD Cofutpa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Cofutpa 2–0 AS Puma Generalena

AD Cofutpa beat AS Puma Generalena 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.