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AS Ain Mlila vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
10/9/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade du 1er novembre 1954 (Batna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Ain Mlila58%
×Draw29%
JSM Skikda13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Ain Mlila
1.33
JSM Skikda
0.47

AS Ain Mlila creates 183% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 35 away

creates per match

AS Ain Mlila
1.09
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

AS Ain Mlila
0.58
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Ain Mlila ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Ain Mlila or draw
87%
AS Ain Mlila or JSM Skikda
71%
Draw or JSM Skikda
42%

Winning margin

AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
29%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
74%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
38%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
15%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
37%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
8%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
82%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Ain Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Ain Mlila attack 1.09 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + AS Ain Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AS Ain Mlila scores more
58%
level
29%
JSM Skikda scores more
13%

AS Ain Mlila at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AS Ain Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Ain Mlila 0 – 0 JSM Skikda

AS Ain Mlila and JSM Skikda drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on October 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 1er novembre 1954 (Batna).