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Arzignano Valchiampo vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
1/29/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo56%
×Draw23%
Ambrosiana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzignano Valchiampo
1.77
Ambrosiana
0.99

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.29
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
0.82
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw
79%
Arzignano Valchiampo or Ambrosiana
77%
Draw or Ambrosiana
44%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
31%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
83%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
53%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
26%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
63%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
26%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
73%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
56%
level
23%
Ambrosiana scores more
21%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Arzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Ambrosiana

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Ambrosiana 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin in Arzignano.