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Ambrosiana vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
0 – 3
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
9/19/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ambrosiana32%
×Draw23%
Arzignano Valchiampo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.44
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.74

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
55%
Ambrosiana or Arzignano Valchiampo
77%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
68%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
15%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
76%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
42%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
18%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
82%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
52%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
42%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
32%
level
23%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
45%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Ambrosiana 0–3 Arzignano Valchiampo

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Ambrosiana 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Montindon in Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella.