Arys 3–3 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

Arys

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Akademiya Ontustik

S. Maulen 90+5'

T. Amirov 79'

N. Dosanov 45+2'

M. Toktybay 90'

K. Askar 51'

K. Narkulov 41' (pen)

8/3/2023

1. Division · Round 18Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Arys38%

×Draw24%

Akademiya Ontustik38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArysExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

Arys

1.58

Akademiya Ontustik

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 76 away

1.21

creates per match

1.24

1.93

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Arys

1.21

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

Arys

1.93

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arys+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arys or draw

62%

Arys or Akademiya Ontustik

76%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

62%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+

19%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals

79%

Arys 2+ goals

47%

Arys 3+ goals

21%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

79%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

47%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)

50%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.21 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Arys defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arys scores more

38%

level

24%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

38%

Arys at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. NarkulovPenalty

45+2'

N. Dosanov

51'

K. Askar

79'

T. Amirov

90'

M. Toktybay

90+5'

S. Maulen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff