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Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Arys
Arys
B. Daniyarov 26'
K. Narkulov 2'
N. Dosanov 87'
R. Usipkhanov 73'
S. Maksimkhan 42'
D. Tursynbay 33', 32'
4/27/20231. Division1. Division · Round 4Stadion Namys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik48%
×Draw21%
Arys31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
2.04
Arys
1.60

Akademiya Ontustik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
Arys
2.35

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
69%
Akademiya Ontustik or Arys
79%
Draw or Arys
52%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
27%
Arys wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
87%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
60%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
33%
Arys 1+ goals
80%
Arys 2+ goals
47%
Arys 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
61%
Arys (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Arys attack 1.30 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
48%
level
21%
Arys scores more
31%

Akademiya Ontustik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
K. Narkulov
26'
B. Daniyarov
32'
D. Tursynbay
33'
D. Tursynbay
42'
S. Maksimkhan
73'
R. Usipkhanov
87'
N. Dosanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys

Arys beat Akademiya Ontustik 5-2 in 1. Division on April 27, 2023.

Goals: K. Narkulov (2'), B. Daniyarov (26'), D. Tursynbay (32', 33'), S. Maksimkhan (42'), R. Usipkhanov (73'), N. Dosanov (87').

The match was played at Stadion Namys in Shymkent.