Artigas 1–2 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Albion FC

N. Leites 42'

E. Burdin 86'

V. Jara 67'

4/27/2025

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Walter Martínez Cerrutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas25%

×Draw27%

Albion FC48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.44

Artigas

0.95

Albion FC

1.44

Albion FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.88

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Albion FC

1.00

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Albion FC

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

52%

Artigas or Albion FC

73%

Draw or Albion FC

75%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

9%

Albion FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

61%

Artigas 2+ goals

25%

Artigas 3+ goals

7%

Albion FC 1+ goals

76%

Albion FC 2+ goals

42%

Albion FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

34%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Albion FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Albion FC attack 1.00 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Artigas scores more

25%

level

27%

Albion FC scores more

48%

Albion FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

N. Leites

45'

C. Bueno

46'

V. Jara← M. Ayres

60'

A. Brum← G. Alegre

60'

F. Sosa← V. Amoroso

60'

T. Casavalle← F. Ibáñez

67'

V. Jara

71'

L. Troncoso← Alemão

71'

O. Pereira← G. Orozco

83'

D. Costa← F. Martínez

83'

M. Núñez← A. Núñez

84'

P. González← C. Airala

86'

E. Burdin

Artigas

Albion

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: C. Bueno

71'▲L. Troncoso←▼Alemão

71'▲O. Pereira←▼G. Orozco

83'▲D. Costa←▼F. Martínez

83'▲M. Núñez←▼A. Núñez

Artigas substitutes

TroncosoPereiraCostaNúñezCostaLunaMacieraLemosPazBarreto

Manager: J. Boghossian

46'▲V. Jara←▼M. Ayres

60'▲A. Brum←▼G. Alegre

60'▲F. Sosa←▼V. Amoroso

60'▲T. Casavalle←▼F. Ibáñez

84'▲P. González←▼C. Airala

Albion FC substitutes

JaraBrumSosaCasavalleGonzálezFreitasBurruzoPerdomoGutiérrezJaume