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Albion FC vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Artigas
Artigas
Unknown 90+3'
F. Sosa 86', 73'
E. Mac Eachen 90+5'
L. Troncoso 61'
8/24/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Albion FC51%
×Draw26%
Artigas23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.53
Artigas
0.93

Albion FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.53
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Albion FC
0.65
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
77%
Albion FC or Artigas
74%
Draw or Artigas
49%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
26%
Artigas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
78%
Albion FC 2+ goals
45%
Albion FC 3+ goals
20%
Artigas 1+ goals
61%
Artigas 2+ goals
24%
Artigas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
69%
Artigas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.53 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Artigas attack 1.20 + Albion FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Albion FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Artigas scores more
23%

Albion FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
L. Troncoso
73'
F. Sosa
86'
F. Sosa
90+3'
90+5'
E. Mac Eachen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion FC vs Artigas

Albion FC beat Artigas 3-2 in Segunda División on August 24, 2025.

Goals: L. Troncoso (61'), F. Sosa (73', 86'), ? (90+3'), E. Mac Eachen (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.