Arsenal 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

O. Giroud 86'

12/26/2016

Premier League · Round 18Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Arsenal58%

×Draw23%

West Brom19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.89

Arsenal

1.78

West Brom

0.89

Arsenal creates 100% more chances

Season form · 210 home / 94 away

2.05

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Arsenal

2.05

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

81%

Arsenal or West Brom

77%

Draw or West Brom

42%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

33%

West Brom wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

83%

Arsenal 2+ goals

53%

Arsenal 3+ goals

26%

West Brom 1+ goals

59%

West Brom 2+ goals

22%

West Brom 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

76%

West Brom (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.93 · 210 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.05 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.78

West Brom attack 0.84 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arsenal scores more

58%

level

23%

West Brom scores more

19%

Arsenal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Foster

West Brom · G

8.2

Match Events

42'

Olivier Giroud

62'

J. McClean← N. Chadli

65'

Kieran Gibbs

71'

Lucas Pérez← A. Iwobi

71'

Nacho Monreal← K. Gibbs

74'

A. Ramsey← F. Coquelin

80'

H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón

83'

Ben Foster

86'

O. Giroud↳ M. Özil

88'

Aaron Ramsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalWest

Overview

75%Possession25%

26Total Shots3

6Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

26Total Shots3

11On Target1

8Off Target1

7Blocked1

17Inside Box3

9Outside Box0

Passing

75%Possession25%

813Total Passes246

731Accurate Passes171

90%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4