Arsenal 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

7/27/2025

Coppa · Round of 16Haradski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Arsenal11%

×Draw18%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 472%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.25

Arsenal

0.73

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

2.25

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 creates 208% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.60

creates per match

2.71

1.80

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Arsenal

0.60

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

2.71

allows per match

Arsenal

1.80

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–213%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

28%

Arsenal or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

82%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

89%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

3%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

52%

Arsenal 2+ goals

17%

Arsenal 3+ goals

4%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

89%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

65%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

13%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 0.60 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 2.71 + Arsenal defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Arsenal scores more

11%

level

18%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

72%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff