Arsenal 6–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

11/25/2023

1. Division · Round 34Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Arsenal61%

×Draw21%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 419%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.08

Arsenal

2.11

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.08

Arsenal creates 95% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 54 away

2.35

creates per match

1.31

0.85

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Arsenal

2.35

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

Arsenal

0.85

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

81%

Arsenal or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

79%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

39%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

37%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

88%

Arsenal 2+ goals

62%

Arsenal 3+ goals

35%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

66%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

29%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

76%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.35 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.11

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + Arsenal defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Arsenal scores more

61%

level

21%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

19%

Arsenal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff