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Arsenal vs Huddersfield — Premier League 2026

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
L. Torreira 83'
12/8/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Arsenal66%
×Draw20%
Huddersfield13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
2.00
Huddersfield
0.76

Arsenal creates 163% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 36 away

creates per match

Arsenal
2.06
Huddersfield
0.58

allows per match

Arsenal
0.93
Huddersfield
1.94

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
87%
Arsenal or Huddersfield
80%
Draw or Huddersfield
34%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
41%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal 2+ goals
59%
Arsenal 3+ goals
32%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
53%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
18%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
83%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 190 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.06 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.00

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Arsenal scores more
66%
level
20%
Huddersfield scores more
13%

Arsenal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
G. XhakaArsenalArsenal · M
8.1

Match Events

24'
Granit Xhaka
35'
Alex Pritchard
38'
Stephan Lichtsteiner
38'
Danny Williams
39'
Tommy Smith
40'
Sokratis
45'
Shkodran Mustafi
46'
H. Mkhitaryan← A. Lacazette
46'
A. Iwobi← S. Lichtsteiner
52'
J. Bacuna← J. Hogg
60'
F. Hadergjonaj← T. Smith
66'
Nacho Monreal← S. Mustafi
70'
E. Durm← D. Williams
80'
Mattéo Guendouzi
83'
L. Torreira↳ P. Aubameyang
85'
Juninho Bacuna

Possession

61%Arsenal

Shots

14Arsenal

Pass accuracy

55%Arsenal

Statistics

ArsenalHuddersfield
Overview
61%Possession39%
14Total Shots6
7Corners1
13Fouls20
Shots
14Total Shots6
2On Target0
8Off Target5
4Blocked1
8Inside Box5
6Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
525Total Passes323
424Accurate Passes218
81%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls20
5Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Premier League: Arsenal 1–0 Huddersfield

Arsenal beat Huddersfield 1-0 in Premier League on December 8, 2018.

Goals: L. Torreira (83').

Arsenal controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Emirates Stadium in London.