Arsenal 5–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huddersfield

O. Giroud 87', 68'

M. Özil 72'

A. Sánchez 69'

A. Lacazette 3'

11/29/2017

Premier League · Round 14Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Arsenal66%

×Draw20%

Huddersfield13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.76

Arsenal

2.00

Huddersfield

0.76

Arsenal creates 163% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 36 away

2.06

creates per match

0.58

0.93

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Arsenal

2.06

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

87%

Arsenal or Huddersfield

80%

Draw or Huddersfield

34%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

41%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

86%

Arsenal 2+ goals

59%

Arsenal 3+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

53%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

18%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

83%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 190 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.06 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.00

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Arsenal scores more

66%

level

20%

Huddersfield scores more

13%

Arsenal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Özil

Arsenal · F

9.4

Match Events

3'

A. Lacazette↳ A. Ramsey

46'

O. Giroud← A. Lacazette

60'

68'

69'

72'

73'

J. Wilshere← A. Ramsey

73'

D. Welbeck← A. Sánchez

74'

D. Williams← A. Mooy

74'

L. Depoitre← S. Mounié

78'

D. Whitehead← J. Hogg

87'

O. Giroud↳ S. Kolašinac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalHuddersfield

Overview

70%Possession30%

21Total Shots7

7Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots7

7On Target2

8Off Target3

6Blocked2

16Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

813Total Passes337

716Accurate Passes259

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3