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Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
12:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
8/2/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Arsenal
36%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
35%30%36%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Arsenal Tula35%
×Draw30%
Torpedo Moskva36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.04
Torpedo Moskva
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.10
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.90
Torpedo Moskva
0.98

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
64%
Arsenal Tula or Torpedo Moskva
70%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
65%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
13%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
9%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
49%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.10 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
35%
level
30%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
36%

Torpedo Moskva at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Torpedo Moskva (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Torpedo Moskva. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Torpedo Moskva at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.