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Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/8/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Arsenal
44%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
44%30%26%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Arsenal Tula44%
×Draw30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.18
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.84

Arsenal Tula creates 40% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.10
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.78

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.90
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
74%
Arsenal Tula or Shinnik Yaroslavl
70%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
56%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
19%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
69%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
12%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
57%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
21%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.10 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.78 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
44%
level
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
26%

Arsenal Tula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Shinnik Yaroslavl. Match starts May 8, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.