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Arouca vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
12/10/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 13Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Arouca44%
×Draw28%
Rio Ave28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.33
Rio Ave
1.01

Arouca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.09
Rio Ave
0.68

allows per match

Arouca
1.33
Rio Ave
1.57

finishing

Arouca+0.36scores more
Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
72%
Arouca or Rio Ave
72%
Draw or Rio Ave
56%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
20%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
74%
Arouca 2+ goals
38%
Arouca 3+ goals
15%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
64%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
27%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
61%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.33 · 20 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.09 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Arouca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arouca scores more
44%
level
28%
Rio Ave scores more
28%

Arouca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arouca 2 – 2 Rio Ave

Arouca and Rio Ave drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.