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Arnstadt vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
CANC
12:00
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
4/3/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 21Kunstrasenplatz 1 Am Obertunk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arnstadt58%
×Draw20%
1. FC Merseburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
2.28
1. FC Merseburg
1.33

Arnstadt creates 71% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
78%
Arnstadt or 1. FC Merseburg
80%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
42%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
37%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
90%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
66%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
39%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
38%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
73%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.28

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arnstadt scores more
58%
level
20%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
22%

Arnstadt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arnstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arnstadt host 1. FC Merseburg

April 3, 2022: Arnstadt take on 1. FC Merseburg in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arnstadt host 1. FC Merseburg at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Am Obertunk.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.