1. FC Merseburg 0–1 Arnstadt: Result & Stats

1. FC Merseburg

FT

0 – 1

Arnstadt

8/15/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 2Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg41%

×Draw25%

Arnstadt34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MerseburgExpected goals in this matchArnstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

1. FC Merseburg

1.50

Arnstadt

1.33

1. FC Merseburg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

0.55

creates per match

0.94

1.73

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg

0.55

Arnstadt

0.94

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg

1.73

Arnstadt

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Arnstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw

66%

1. FC Merseburg or Arnstadt

75%

Draw or Arnstadt

59%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+

20%

Arnstadt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals

78%

1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals

44%

1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals

19%

Arnstadt 1+ goals

74%

Arnstadt 2+ goals

38%

Arnstadt 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)

55%

Arnstadt (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more

41%

level

25%

Arnstadt scores more

34%

1. FC Merseburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "1. FC Merseburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff