Arminia Ludwigshafen 0–3 Ahrweiler BC

Arminia Ludwigshafen

FT

0 – 3

Ahrweiler BC

3/11/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 1Haag-Park-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen67%

×Draw16%

Ahrweiler BC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia LudwigshafenExpected goals in this matchAhrweiler BC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.42

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.92

Ahrweiler BC

1.42

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

2.00

allows per match

3.83

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.00

Ahrweiler BC

0.83

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.00

Ahrweiler BC

3.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Ahrweiler BC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw

83%

Arminia Ludwigshafen or Ahrweiler BC

84%

Draw or Ahrweiler BC

33%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

47%

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

94%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

78%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

55%

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

76%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

41%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

80%

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 2.00 + Ahrweiler BC defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.83 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

67%

level

16%

Ahrweiler BC scores more

17%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff