Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ahrweiler BC vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
2 – 3
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
4/22/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 7Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahrweiler BC28%
×Draw19%
Arminia Ludwigshafen52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.83
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.50

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.17
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3.00

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.00
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.50

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
48%
Ahrweiler BC or Arminia Ludwigshafen
81%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
72%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
14%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
84%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
54%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
28%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
92%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
71%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
35%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.17 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 3.00 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
28%
level
19%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
52%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs Arminia Ludwigshafen

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Ahrweiler BC 3-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.