Armenia 3–0 Liechtenstein: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liechtenstein

T. Barseghyan 90+1'

A. Karapetyan 18'

G. Ghazaryan 2'

6/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Armenia74%

×Draw16%

Liechtenstein10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchLiechtenstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.77

Armenia

2.46

Liechtenstein

0.77

Armenia creates 219% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.20

1.33

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Armenia

1.33

Liechtenstein

0.20

allows per match

Armenia

1.33

Liechtenstein

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Liechtenstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

90%

Armenia or Liechtenstein

84%

Draw or Liechtenstein

26%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

51%

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

91%

Armenia 2+ goals

70%

Armenia 3+ goals

44%

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

54%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

18%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

88%

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.33 + Liechtenstein defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Liechtenstein attack 0.20 + Armenia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Armenia scores more

74%

level

16%

Liechtenstein scores more

10%

Armenia at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Barseghyan

Armenia · M

8.9

Match Events

2'

G. Ghazaryan↳ V. Haroyan

18'

A. Karapetyan

46'

S. Kühne← Y. Frick

73'

E. Babayan← A. Karapetyan

76'

A. Grigoryan← K. Mkrtchyan

78'

R. Hovsepyan← P. Avetisyan

81'

L. Meier← A. Sele

82'

Rumyan Hovsepyan

85'

D. Brändle← S. Wolfinger

90+1'

T. Barseghyan↳ E. Babayan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaLiechtenstein

Overview

62%Possession38%

31Total Shots4

12Corners3

18Fouls10

Shots

31Total Shots4

13On Target2

13Off Target1

5Blocked1

19Inside Box2

12Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

451Total Passes274

369Accurate Passes183

82%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides0