Armenia 2–1 Liechtenstein: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Liechtenstein

Tigran Barseghyan 76'

Marcos Pizzelli 30'

Sandro Wolfinger 33'

9/6/2018

UEFA Nations League · League D - 1Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Armenia43%

×Draw25%

Liechtenstein32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchLiechtenstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Armenia

1.50

Liechtenstein

1.27

Armenia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

Liechtenstein

0.88

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

Liechtenstein

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Liechtenstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

68%

Armenia or Liechtenstein

75%

Draw or Liechtenstein

57%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

21%

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

78%

Armenia 2+ goals

44%

Armenia 3+ goals

19%

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

72%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

36%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

57%

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Liechtenstein defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Liechtenstein attack 0.88 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Armenia scores more

43%

level

25%

Liechtenstein scores more

32%

Armenia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Daniel Kaufmann

30'

Marcos Pizzelli↳ Aras Özbiliz

33'

Sandro Wolfinger↳ Nicolas Hasler

37'

Michele Polverino

42'

Artak Yedigaryan← Armen Manucharyan

48'

Philippe Erne← Philippe Erne

55'

Tigran Barseghyan← Ivan Yagan

57'

Edgar Malakyan

60'

Karlen Mkrtchyan

68'

Martin Rechsteiner

69'

Henrikh MkhitaryanMissed penalty

72'

Dennis Salanović

74'

Michele Polverino

74'

Michele Polverino

76'

Tigran Barseghyan↳ Aras Özbiliz

80'

Seyhan Yildiz← Martin Rechsteiner

81'

Livio Meier← Sandro Wolfinger

82'

Gevorg Ghazaryan← Aras Özbiliz

Armenia4-2-3-1

Liechtenstein4-1-4-1

7

▼

Erne

11

Salanović

8

Sele

18

A

Hasler

20

⚽

▼

23

3

10

4

22

▼

Rechstein

1

Buchel

16

Airapetya

5

Manuchary

3

13

19

6

9

14

▼

Yagan

18

Mkhitarya

23

A

▼

Özbiliz

8

⚽

Pizzelli

Manager: V. Minasyan

42'▲Artak Yedigaryan←▼Armen Manucharyan

55'▲Tigran Barseghyan←▼Ivan Yagan

82'▲Gevorg Ghazaryan←▼Aras Özbiliz

Armenia substitutes

1Beglaryan12Ayvazov2Ishkhanyan17Yedigaryan4Voskanyan7Malakyan10Ghazaryan21Hovsepyan15Vardanyan11Sarkisov22Adamyan20Barseghyan

Manager: R. Pauritsch

48'▲—←▼Philippe Erne

80'▲Seyhan Yildiz←▼Martin Rechsteiner

81'▲Livio Meier←▼Sandro Wolfinger

Liechtenstein substitutes

12Hobi21Russo6Malin2Eberle16Sele5Quintans13Flatz14Meier17Wolfinger15Yildiz9Kühne19Kieber

UEFA Nations League: Armenia 2–1 Liechtenstein

Armenia beat Liechtenstein 2-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 6, 2018.

Goals: Marcos Pizzelli (30'), Sandro Wolfinger (33'), Tigran Barseghyan (76').

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan.

Armenia vs Liechtenstein — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Nations League: Armenia 2–1 Liechtenstein