Armenia 1–0 FYR Macedonia: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FYR Macedonia

Hovhannes Hambardzumyan 55'

11/18/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Armenia30%

×Draw26%

FYR Macedonia44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchFYR Macedonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.44

Armenia

1.13

FYR Macedonia

1.44

FYR Macedonia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

FYR Macedonia

1.20

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

FYR Macedonia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

FYR Macedonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

56%

Armenia or FYR Macedonia

74%

Draw or FYR Macedonia

70%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

12%

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

68%

Armenia 2+ goals

31%

Armenia 3+ goals

11%

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

76%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

42%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

40%

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Armenia scores more

30%

level

26%

FYR Macedonia scores more

44%

FYR Macedonia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

David Yurchenko

Armenia · G

8.2

Match Events

39'

Taron Voskanyan

45+1'

Arshak Koryan

45+1'

Solomon Udo

46'

Vahan Bichakhchyan← Alexander Karapetian

46'

Wbeymar Angulo← Solomon Udo

48'

Visar Musliu

55'

Hovhannes Hambardzumyan↳ Vahan Bichakhchyan

56'

Tigran Barseghyan

62'

Darko Micevski← Tihomir Kostadinov

62'

Ilija Nestorovski← Vlatko Stojanovski

65'

Serob Grigoryan← Arshak Koryan

70'

Karen Muradyan← Hakob Hakobyan

70'

Ljupche Doriev← Stefan Ristovski

70'

Tome Kitanovski← Visar Musliu

84'

Duško Trajčevski← Ennur Totre

90'

Hayk Ishkhanyan← Tigran Barseghyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaFYR

Overview

32%Possession68%

13Total Shots14

5Corners4

19Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target3

3Off Target8

6Blocked3

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box9

Passing

32%Possession68%

283Total Passes578

181Accurate Passes487

64%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4