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Armenia vs Albania — Friendlies 2026

Armenia
Armenia
CANC
13:00
Albania
Albania
10/7/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Armenia40%
×Draw31%
Albania29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia
1.06
Albania
0.85

Armenia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Armenia
0.82
Albania
0.80

allows per match

Armenia
0.91
Albania
1.30

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par
Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Albania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Armenia or draw
71%
Armenia or Albania
69%
Draw or Albania
60%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+
16%
Albania wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals
65%
Armenia 2+ goals
29%
Armenia 3+ goals
9%
Albania 1+ goals
57%
Albania 2+ goals
21%
Albania 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)
58%
Albania (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Albania away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 0.82 + Albania defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Albania attack 0.80 + Armenia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Armenia scores more
40%
level
31%
Albania scores more
29%

Armenia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Armenia host Albania

October 7, 2020: Armenia take on Albania in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Armenia host Albania at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.