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Albania vs Armenia — Friendlies 2026

Albania
Albania
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Armenia
Armenia
K. Asllani 64' (pen)
X. Skuka 28'
11/19/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Albania58%
×Draw21%
Armenia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
2.08
Armenia
1.18

Albania creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Albania
1.06
Armenia
1.10

allows per match

Albania
1.25
Armenia
3.10

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Albania or draw
79%
Albania or Armenia
79%
Draw or Armenia
42%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
35%
Armenia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
87%
Albania 2+ goals
61%
Albania 3+ goals
34%
Armenia 1+ goals
69%
Armenia 2+ goals
33%
Armenia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
73%
Armenia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

Armenia attack 1.10 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Albania scores more
58%
level
21%
Armenia scores more
21%

Albania at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
X. Skuka
43'
Xhuliano Skuka
46'
Y. Ramadani← Q. Laçi
46'
T. Cara← E. Çokaj
46'
K. Bare← E. Muçi
46'
S. Mkrtchyan← T. Voskanyan
46'
A. Galoyan← A. Grigoryan
64'
K. AsllaniPenalty
65'
E. Hysaj← A. Hadroj
66'
A. Serobyan← Z. Shaghoyan
66'
N. Grigoryan← E. Babayan
67'
E. Bitri← M. Kumbulla
71'
Vahan Bichakhchyan
71'
A. Muçolli← X. Skuka
76'
A. Ghazaryan← S. Mkrtchyan
89'
P. Avetisyan← H. Harutyunyan

Possession

48%Albania

Shots

9Albania

Statistics

AlbaniaArmenia
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots11
2Corners6
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots11
6On Target1
3Off Target9
0Blocked1
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Albania vs Armenia

Albania beat Armenia 2-0 in Friendlies on November 19, 2022.

Goals: X. Skuka (28'), K. Asllani (64' pen).

Armenia controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.