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Arman Gohar vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
1 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
M. Hosseinzadeh 88'
M. Majidi 27'
11/16/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arman Gohar39%
×Draw32%
Aluminium Arak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.04
Aluminium Arak
0.85

Arman Gohar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.55
Aluminium Arak
0.79

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.91
Aluminium Arak
0.53

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
71%
Arman Gohar or Aluminium Arak
68%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
61%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
15%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
65%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
28%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
9%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
57%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
21%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
57%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.55 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Aluminium Arak attack 0.79 + Arman Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
39%
level
32%
Aluminium Arak scores more
29%

Arman Gohar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Majidi
88'
M. Hosseinzadeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arman Gohar 1–1 Aluminium Arak

Arman Gohar and Aluminium Arak drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 16, 2019.

Goals: M. Majidi (27'), M. Hosseinzadeh (88').

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.