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Aluminium Arak vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 2
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
M. Majidi 60' (pen)
A. Assadi 83'
Shushtari Hassan 20'
7/18/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aluminium Arak49%
×Draw29%
Arman Gohar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.29
Arman Gohar
0.75

Aluminium Arak creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.13
Arman Gohar
0.87

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.63
Arman Gohar
1.46

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
78%
Aluminium Arak or Arman Gohar
71%
Draw or Arman Gohar
51%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
23%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
72%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
37%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
53%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
17%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
69%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.13 + Arman Gohar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arman Gohar attack 0.87 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
49%
level
29%
Arman Gohar scores more
22%

Aluminium Arak at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Shushtari Hassan
60'
M. MajidiPenalty
83'
A. Assadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Arman Gohar

Arman Gohar beat Aluminium Arak 2-1 in Azadegan League on July 18, 2020.

Goals: Shushtari Hassan (20'), M. Majidi (60' pen), A. Assadi (83').

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.