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Armagh City vs Annagh United — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Annagh United
Annagh United
S. Murray 85', 67'
C. Young 54'
P. Donnelly 45'
L. Upton 32'
K. Calvert 23'
2/28/2025League #407League #407 · Round 30Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Armagh City28%
×Draw22%
Annagh United50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.46
Annagh United
1.99

Annagh United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.71
Annagh United
1.33

allows per match

Armagh City
2.65
Annagh United
1.20

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Annagh United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
50%
Armagh City or Annagh United
78%
Draw or Annagh United
72%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
13%
Annagh United wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
77%
Armagh City 2+ goals
43%
Armagh City 3+ goals
18%
Annagh United 1+ goals
86%
Annagh United 2+ goals
59%
Annagh United 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
36%
Annagh United (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.71 + Annagh United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Annagh United attack 1.33 + Armagh City defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Armagh City scores more
28%
level
22%
Annagh United scores more
50%

Annagh United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. Calvert
32'
L. Upton
45'
P. Donnelly
54'
C. Young
67'
S. Murray
85'
S. Murray

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armagh City vs Annagh United

Annagh United beat Armagh City 6-0 in League #407 on February 28, 2025.

Goals: K. Calvert (23'), L. Upton (32'), P. Donnelly (45'), C. Young (54'), S. Murray (67', 85').

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.