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Annagh United vs Armagh City — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Armagh City
Armagh City
11/22/2025League #407League #407 · Round 17BMG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Annagh United68%
×Draw18%
Armagh City15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
2.50
Armagh City
1.09

Annagh United creates 129% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.94
Armagh City
0.93

allows per match

Annagh United
1.25
Armagh City
3.07

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
85%
Annagh United or Armagh City
82%
Draw or Armagh City
32%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
46%
Armagh City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
92%
Annagh United 2+ goals
71%
Annagh United 3+ goals
45%
Armagh City 1+ goals
66%
Armagh City 2+ goals
30%
Armagh City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
82%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Armagh City away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.94 + Armagh City defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.50

Armagh City attack 0.93 + Annagh United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Annagh United scores more
68%
level
18%
Armagh City scores more
15%

Annagh United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Armagh City

Annagh United beat Armagh City 2-0 in League #407 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at BMG Arena in Portadown.