Arka Gdynia 2–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

L. Zarandia 90+7'

M. Jankowski 85'

5/10/2019

Ekstraklasa · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arka Gdynia52%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Arka Gdynia

1.68

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.04

Arka Gdynia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

0.79

1.30

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.36

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.79

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.30

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

77%

Arka Gdynia or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

48%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

81%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

50%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

65%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.36 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

52%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

23%

Arka Gdynia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

40'

42'

46'

59'

Marcus Vinícius← M. Janota

75'

G. Gabedava← V. Sanogo

76'

N. Aankour← M. Nalepa

81'

G. Cvijanović← A. Deja

85'

M. Jankowski↳ L. Zarandia

90+2'

O. Nowak← G. Ivanishvili

90+7'

L. Zarandia↳ N. Aankour

Shots

Statistics

ArkaZaglebie

Overview

28Total Shots4

5Corners0

17Fouls11

Shots

28Total Shots4

16On Target1

12Off Target3

Goalkeeping

1Saves12

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

–Red Cards1

2Offsides2