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Arka Gdynia vs Stomil Olsztyn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
CANC
12:00
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
7/12/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arka Gdynia59%
×Draw21%
Stomil Olsztyn19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
2.00
Stomil Olsztyn
1.04

Arka Gdynia creates 92% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
2.33
Stomil Olsztyn
1.00

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
1.07
Stomil Olsztyn
1.67

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
81%
Arka Gdynia or Stomil Olsztyn
79%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
41%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
36%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
86%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
59%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
32%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
65%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
28%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
76%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 2.33 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.00 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
59%
level
21%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
19%

Arka Gdynia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arka Gdynia host Stomil Olsztyn

July 12, 2023: Arka Gdynia take on Stomil Olsztyn in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arka Gdynia host Stomil Olsztyn at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.