Arka Gdynia 2–0 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

4/25/2021

I Liga · Round 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arka Gdynia51%

×Draw26%

Stomil Olsztyn23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.93

Arka Gdynia

1.51

Stomil Olsztyn

0.93

Arka Gdynia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

0.88

0.97

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.67

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

0.97

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

77%

Arka Gdynia or Stomil Olsztyn

74%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

49%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

26%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

78%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

44%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

19%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

61%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

24%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

69%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

51%

level

26%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

23%

Arka Gdynia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff