Argentino de Merlo vs Ituzaingó — Primera B Metropolitana 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Argentino de Merlo49%
Ituzaingó24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Argentino de Merlo creates 58% more chances
Season form · 73 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Argentino de Merlo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Argentino de Merlo at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches
Ituzaingó away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Argentino de Merlo attack 1.27 + Ituzaingó defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45
Ituzaingó attack 0.89 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Argentino de Merlo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Argentino de Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Deportivo Laferrere
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
Arsenal Sarandi
Villa Dalmine
Talleres Remedios
Dock Sud
Comunicaciones
Deportivo ArmenioArgentino de Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
Real Pilar
Excursionistas
Flandria
Villa San Carlos
Argentino Quilmes
Liniers
Brown DE Adrogue
Defensores Unidos
UAI UrquizaItuzaingóIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Argentino de Merlo host Ituzaingó on Monday, 11 September 2023 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2026/2027 season.
Argentino de Merlo 0 – 0 Ituzaingó
Argentino de Merlo and Ituzaingó drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 11, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva in Merlo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.