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Argentino de Merlo vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
M. Coselli 76'
L. Nebot 17' (OG)
12/14/2021Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Argentino de Merlo41%
×Draw29%
Ituzaingó30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino de Merlo
1.19
Ituzaingó
0.97

Argentino de Merlo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 94 away

creates per match

Argentino de Merlo
1.50
Ituzaingó
0.95

allows per match

Argentino de Merlo
1.00
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino de Merlo ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Argentino de Merlo or draw
70%
Argentino de Merlo or Ituzaingó
71%
Draw or Ituzaingó
59%

Winning margin

Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+
18%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals
70%
Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals
33%
Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals
12%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
62%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
25%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)
58%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino de Merlo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 58 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino de Merlo attack 1.50 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ituzaingó attack 0.95 + Argentino de Merlo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Argentino de Merlo scores more
41%
level
29%
Ituzaingó scores more
30%

Argentino de Merlo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Argentino de Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
L. NebotOwn goal
76'
M. Coselli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino de Merlo vs Ituzaingó

Argentino de Merlo beat Ituzaingó 2-0 in Primera C on December 14, 2021.

Goals: L. Nebot (17' o.g.), M. Coselli (76').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva in Merlo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.