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Arenas Getxo vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
15:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
4/25/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal de Fadura
45%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
45%26%29%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arenas Getxo45%
×Draw26%
UD Logroñés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.48
UD Logroñés
1.14

Arenas Getxo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
71%
Arenas Getxo or UD Logroñés
74%
Draw or UD Logroñés
55%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
22%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
77%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
43%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
19%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
68%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
32%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
61%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
45%
level
26%
UD Logroñés scores more
29%

Arenas Getxo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arenas Getxo host UD Logroñés

April 25, 2027: Arenas Getxo take on UD Logroñés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arenas Getxo host UD Logroñés at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.