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Arenas Armilla vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Almería II
Almería II
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla36%
×Draw26%
Almería II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Almería II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 75 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
63%
Arenas Armilla or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
64%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
16%
Almería II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
72%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
37%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
14%
Almería II 1+ goals
73%
Almería II 2+ goals
38%
Almería II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
49%
Almería II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Almería II attack 1.51 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
36%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
37%

Almería II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 1–3 Almería II

Almería II beat Arenas Armilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.