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Almería II vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Complejo Deportivo Pedro Perez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Almería II56%
×Draw25%
Arenas Armilla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.63
Arenas Armilla
0.83

Almería II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
81%
Almería II or Arenas Armilla
75%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
44%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
31%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
80%
Almería II 2+ goals
48%
Almería II 3+ goals
22%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
56%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
20%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
75%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Almería II scores more
56%
level
25%
Arenas Armilla scores more
19%

Almería II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Almería II 4–0 Arenas Armilla

Almería II beat Arenas Armilla 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Pedro Perez in Almería.