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Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
Preview
16:00
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Arena Arda
Big match
38%
CSKA Sofia
model favours
34%28%38%

CSKA Sofia score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali34%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.14
CSKA Sofia
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 133 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
62%
Arda Kardzhali or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
66%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
14%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
68%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
32%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
11%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
47%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
34%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
38%

CSKA Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CSKA Sofia have won 3 in a row

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kardzhali
LDLWL
Sofia
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arda Kardzhali face CSKA Sofia (First League)

First League returns with Arda Kardzhali hosting CSKA Sofia. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arda Kardzhali host CSKA Sofia at Arena Arda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.