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Arcos vs AD Ceuta FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arcos42%
×Draw29%
AD Ceuta FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.23
AD Ceuta FC
0.99

Arcos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
AD Ceuta FC
1.08

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
AD Ceuta FC
1.50

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
70%
Arcos or AD Ceuta FC
71%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
58%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
18%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
71%
Arcos 2+ goals
35%
Arcos 3+ goals
13%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
63%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
26%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
58%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arcos scores more
42%
level
29%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
30%

Arcos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Arcos 0–1 AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC beat Arcos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.