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AD Ceuta FC vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arcos
Arcos
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 16Estadio José Martínez Pirri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Ceuta FC58%
×Draw25%
Arcos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.60
Arcos
0.73

AD Ceuta FC creates 119% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.58
Arcos
0.71

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.75
Arcos
1.61

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
83%
AD Ceuta FC or Arcos
75%
Draw or Arcos
42%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
32%
Arcos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
80%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
47%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
22%
Arcos 1+ goals
52%
Arcos 2+ goals
17%
Arcos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
77%
Arcos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.58 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arcos attack 0.71 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
58%
level
25%
Arcos scores more
17%

AD Ceuta FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: AD Ceuta FC 2–0 Arcos

AD Ceuta FC beat Arcos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Martínez Pirri in Ceuta.