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Arba Minch Kenema vs Addis Ababa Ketema — Premier League 2019

Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
FT
2 – 1
Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
4/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arba Minch Kenema35%
×Draw29%
Addis Ababa Ketema37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arba Minch Kenema
1.12
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arba Minch Kenema
0.91
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.20

allows per match

Arba Minch Kenema
1.12
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.33

finishing

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par
Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arba Minch Kenema ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arba Minch Kenema or draw
63%
Arba Minch Kenema or Addis Ababa Ketema
71%
Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema
65%

Winning margin

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
14%
Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
67%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
31%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
10%
Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
69%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
32%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
49%
Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arba Minch Kenema at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arba Minch Kenema attack 0.91 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arba Minch Kenema scores more
35%
level
29%
Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
37%

Addis Ababa Ketema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Addis Ababa Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arba Minch Kenema vs Addis Ababa Ketema

Arba Minch Kenema beat Addis Ababa Ketema 2-1 in Premier League on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.