Addis Ababa Ketema 1–2 Arba Minch Kenema

Addis Ababa Ketema

FT

1 – 2

Arba Minch Kenema

10/24/2021

Premier League · Round 2Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema34%

×Draw28%

Arba Minch Kenema38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Addis Ababa KetemaExpected goals in this matchArba Minch Kenema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.13

Arba Minch Kenema

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.47

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.27

Arba Minch Kenema

1.00

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.47

Arba Minch Kenema

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Arba Minch Kenema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw

62%

Addis Ababa Ketema or Arba Minch Kenema

72%

Draw or Arba Minch Kenema

66%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

14%

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

68%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

31%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

11%

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals

71%

Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals

35%

Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

47%

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Arba Minch Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Arba Minch Kenema attack 1.00 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

34%

level

28%

Arba Minch Kenema scores more

38%

Arba Minch Kenema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff