Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ararat II vs Aragats — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
0 – 1
Aragats
Aragats
8/8/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat II49%
×Draw20%
Aragats32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
2.44
Aragats
1.97

Ararat II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
68%
Ararat II or Aragats
80%
Draw or Aragats
51%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
30%
Aragats wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
91%
Ararat II 2+ goals
70%
Ararat II 3+ goals
43%
Aragats 1+ goals
86%
Aragats 2+ goals
58%
Aragats 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
60%
Aragats (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.44

Aragats attack 2.07 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ararat II scores more
49%
level
20%
Aragats scores more
32%

Ararat II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat II 0–1 Aragats

Aragats beat Ararat II 1-0 in First League on August 8, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.