Aragats 2–2 Ararat II: Result & Stats

Aragats

FT

2 – 2

Ararat II

12/8/2019

First League · Round 18Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats39%

×Draw22%

Ararat II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AragatsExpected goals in this matchArarat II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.88

Aragats

1.89

Ararat II

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

1.93

creates per match

1.55

2.21

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Aragats

1.93

Ararat II

1.55

allows per match

Aragats

2.21

Ararat II

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par

Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Ararat II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Aragats or draw

61%

Aragats or Ararat II

78%

Draw or Ararat II

61%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+

21%

Ararat II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals

85%

Aragats 2+ goals

56%

Aragats 3+ goals

29%

Ararat II 1+ goals

85%

Ararat II 2+ goals

56%

Ararat II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)

50%

Ararat II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aragats scores more

39%

level

22%

Ararat II scores more

39%

Aragats at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff