Ararat II 3–5 Ani Yerevan: Result & Stats

Ararat II

FT

3 – 5

Ani Yerevan

6/12/2020

First League · Round 25Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat II66%

×Draw16%

Ani Yerevan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat IIExpected goals in this matchAni Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.54

Ararat II

2.98

Ani Yerevan

1.54

Ararat II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

2.02

creates per match

1.21

1.88

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Ararat II

2.02

Ani Yerevan

1.21

allows per match

Ararat II

1.88

Ani Yerevan

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Ani Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw

82%

Ararat II or Ani Yerevan

84%

Draw or Ani Yerevan

34%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+

46%

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals

95%

Ararat II 2+ goals

79%

Ararat II 3+ goals

56%

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

79%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

45%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)

79%

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.98

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ararat II scores more

66%

level

16%

Ani Yerevan scores more

18%

Ararat II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff