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Ani Yerevan vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
FT
0 – 1
Ararat II
Ararat II
9/25/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan19%
×Draw18%
Ararat II63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ani Yerevan
1.42
Ararat II
2.67

Ararat II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ani Yerevan
1.00
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Ani Yerevan
3.79
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw
37%
Ani Yerevan or Ararat II
82%
Draw or Ararat II
81%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
8%
Ararat II wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
76%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
41%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
17%
Ararat II 1+ goals
93%
Ararat II 2+ goals
74%
Ararat II 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
23%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more
19%
level
18%
Ararat II scores more
63%

Ararat II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ani Yerevan 0–1 Ararat II

Ararat II beat Ani Yerevan 1-0 in First League on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.