Ararat-Armenia II 0–1 Andranik: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Andranik

12/4/2023

First League · Round 17Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II33%

×Draw22%

Andranik44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-Armenia IIExpected goals in this matchAndranik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.86

Ararat-Armenia II

1.59

Andranik

1.86

Andranik creates 17% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 41 away

1.80

creates per match

1.90

1.82

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.80

Andranik

1.90

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.82

Andranik

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Andranik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Andranik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw

56%

Ararat-Armenia II or Andranik

78%

Draw or Andranik

67%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

16%

Andranik wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

80%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

47%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

21%

Andranik 1+ goals

84%

Andranik 2+ goals

55%

Andranik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

43%

Andranik (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Andranik away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Andranik defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Andranik attack 1.90 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

33%

level

22%

Andranik scores more

44%

Andranik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff