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Andranik vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019

Andranik
Andranik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
11/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Andranik48%
×Draw23%
Ararat-Armenia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andranik
1.85
Ararat-Armenia II
1.40

Andranik creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 99 away

creates per match

Andranik
1.85
Ararat-Armenia II
1.48

allows per match

Andranik
1.32
Ararat-Armenia II
1.86

finishing

Andranik+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andranik ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Andranik or draw
71%
Andranik or Ararat-Armenia II
77%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
52%

Winning margin

Andranik wins by 2+
26%
Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Andranik 1+ goals
84%
Andranik 2+ goals
55%
Andranik 3+ goals
28%
Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
75%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
41%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Andranik (draw refunded)
62%
Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andranik at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andranik attack 1.85 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Andranik defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Andranik scores more
48%
level
23%
Ararat-Armenia II scores more
29%

Andranik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andranik vs Ararat-Armenia II

Andranik beat Ararat-Armenia II 3-0 in First League on November 26, 2025.