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Arar vs Al Jabalain — Division 1 2018

Arar
Arar
FT
1 – 2
Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
1/25/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar29%
×Draw27%
Al Jabalain43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arar
1.06
Al Jabalain
1.35

Al Jabalain creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Arar
1.00
Al Jabalain
1.17

allows per match

Arar
1.53
Al Jabalain
1.11

finishing

Arar+0.00on par
Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Al Jabalain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arar or draw
57%
Arar or Al Jabalain
73%
Draw or Al Jabalain
71%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+
11%
Al Jabalain wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals
65%
Arar 2+ goals
29%
Arar 3+ goals
9%
Al Jabalain 1+ goals
74%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
39%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)
40%
Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arar scores more
29%
level
27%
Al Jabalain scores more
43%

Al Jabalain at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arar vs Al Jabalain

Al Jabalain beat Arar 2-1 in Division 1 on January 25, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium in Arar.